Summary
TLDR: With the Bitcoin halving approaching, on-chain analysts are bullish while technical analysts are cautious. Short-term traders are no longer sitting on large profits, but momentum metrics continue to trend higher. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs warn of potential downside post-halving, citing factors like already priced-in halving and lack of venture funding.
Key Points
1. Expert predictions of post-halving BTC price movements differ depending on the lens used to examine the market, with on-chain analysts being directionally bullish and technical analysts more cautious.
2. Short-term holder realized price has returned to near equivalency with Bitcoin’s market price, indicating that short-term traders are no longer sitting on large profits that would incentivize them to sell immediately.
3. Momentum metrics tracked by Glassnode continue to trend higher across all-time frames, suggesting that bull market momentum is still largely underway based on changes to the average active investor’s cost basis.