Summary
TLDR: On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that true crypto bull runs are driven by fundamental factors, not just speculation. The Bitcoin Macro Index crossing a certain threshold signals the start of a new bull market. Current high interest rates and decreased borrowing suggest that a full fundamentals-driven bull market may still be a ways off. Technical analysis predicts a new bull run in the next year and a half if historical cycles repeat themselves.
Key Points
1. On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that fundamentals will be the driving force behind the true crypto bull run, with the Bitcoin Macro Index playing a key role in signaling the start of a new bull market.
2. The Bitcoin Macro Index incorporates fundamental and technical analyses into machine learning models to provide a comprehensive view of where an asset stands in its cycle. Based on the model’s previous performance, Woo suggests that the crypto bull market is still some ways off.
3. The US Federal Reserve’s decisions to tighten interest rates have historically influenced the price of Bitcoin, with the severity and speed of initial rate cuts impacting Bitcoin’s price. As the interest rate cycle lengthens, Bitcoin has shown less sensitivity to interest rate policies, with technical analysts predicting the next bull run to start in about a year and a half.