Summary
A post-launch analysis of option implied vs realized volatility suggests that the crypto options market accurately priced in the market reaction to the launch of a bitcoin spot ETF. However, the ether options market did not accurately anticipate the rally in ETH following the launch.
Key Points
1. The crypto options market accurately priced in the market reaction to the launch of a bitcoin ETF, as implied volatility aligned with subsequent realized volatility.
2. Expectations in the markets have subsided after the ETF launch, indicating a decrease in anticipation and excitement.
3. The options market for ether (ETH) did not correctly price in the rally that occurred in ETH following the launch of the bitcoin ETF, suggesting a lack of attention or awareness in the team ether options market.