Summary
TLDR: Bitcoin’s current rally is driven by the upcoming halving event and increased demand from spot ETFs. Historically, halvings have led to significant growth in bitcoin’s price, but other cryptocurrencies tend to benefit more during bull runs. The global liquidity cycle may also play a role in bitcoin’s market cycles. Despite the hype around halvings, the data shows that bitcoin’s market cycles are flattening over time. Bitcoin miners are struggling to keep up with demand, and the upcoming halving could impact the economics of mining. Predictions for bitcoin’s price post-halving vary, but past performance does not guarantee future results.
Key Points
1. Bitcoin’s current rally is driven by the convergence of two bullish narratives: the upcoming halving event that will cut new supply in half, and the increasing demand from spot ETFs.
2. Historically, halvings have been catalysts for significant growth in bitcoin’s price, with previous cycles showing massive percentage increases in value one to one and a half years after each halving.
3. While bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency in terms of market value, other cryptocurrencies tend to benefit more from bitcoin bull runs, with significant growth seen in the value of crypto excluding bitcoin after previous halving events.