Summary
TLDR: The upcoming Bitcoin halving is anticipated to be unique due to the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and an increase in active BTC supply. This cycle challenges traditional assumptions and requires a nuanced understanding of supply and demand dynamics. The influx of ETF investments may impact the market differently than previous halving cycles. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.
Key Points
1. Historically, halvings have reduced Bitcoin miners’ rewards, with the 2024 halving expected to slash issuance from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.
2. Since early Q4 2023, there has been a significant increase in the active BTC supply, surpassing cumulative ETF inflows, indicating a shift in market behavior and the presence of institutional investors through ETFs.
3. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally altered how investors approach the upcoming halving, with consistent daily net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs providing a significant tailwind for the asset class.